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Saturday, 20 February 2010
As flash recovers, fears of another bubble
Flash memory might rule the roost when it comes to gadget storage – all the sleekest devices from smartphones to the upcoming iPad use it – but it can be tough to make a profit selling the stuff.
No one knows that better than Eli Harari. As founder and CEO of flash memory maker SanDisk (SNDK), he has been through a roller-coaster year.
Late 2008 was the worst of times. In a race for market share, SanDisk and its rivals flooded the market with flash chips. That, combined with weak consumer demand from a global recession, sank prices and drove everybody into the red. “We had a period of irrational exuberance,” Harari says, borrowing a dot-com-era phrase.
More recently, though, the flash market managed to stage a comeback. SanDisk, along with other big flash producers including Samsung, Toshiba and Intel (INTC)/Micron, cut flash production last year, just before demand began to recover. Lower supply and higher demand helped usher in record revenues ($1.2 billion) and net income ($277 million) in the fourth quarter, and when I stopped by SanDisk headquarters this month to chat with Harari, he was still smiling about it.
“No one built new fabs in 2009, and we don’t think any are going to come onstream in 2010,” Harari says. Stable supply, of course, often means more stable prices.
But the good times might not last.
Toshiba today announced plans to spend nearly $9 billion to build a new flash memory manufacturing facility, calling it a necessary move to keep up with market leader Samsung. (UPDATE: The company later clarified its comments, saying it hasn't made a final decision about the timing of a new facility.) We’ve seen this movie before: It’s probably just a matter of time before others follow suit, raising the risk that in 2011, the market will once again be awash in cheap flash memory.
Harari? He’s sanguine about the market. While he can’t promise an end to market volatility, he has reorganized SanDisk so that it’s less beholden to the whims of the retail consumer. He’s done that by backing away from competing at the low end of the market for SD cards, beefing up his business selling white-label cards to wireless carriers, and extending his global network of folks who sell rebranded SanDisk cards in places where he had a weak presence before.
An example is the Chinese New Year business. “December and January has very active purchasing for that market, and the pricing is very good. February, China is basically shut down, but there will be India or Latin America. When you straddle OEM and retail, and do it globally, you have the opportunity to start optimizing.”
Unless, that is, your competitors start flooding the market with product, and sinking prices. If that happens, it’s back to the roller coaster again. (AAPL)
HP's Mark Hurd: The Biggest Winner
Just for a moment, forget about revenue and earnings per share. The most interesting number out of Hewlett-Packard’s earnings announcement this week was this:
15.8%.
That’s the profit margin CEO Mark Hurd and his team squeezed out of HP’s (HPQ) services business on the way to an impressive first fiscal quarter. The significance of the number? When Hurd bought lumbering services giant EDS for $13.9 billion a year and a half ago, he embarked on the corporate equivalent of that weight-loss show, The Biggest Loser. For HP to win, the former EDS has to drop weight. And the surest sign of weight loss is healthy margins. More
Tags: EDS, Financials, HP, IBM, Mark Hurd, Services
Are you a tax cheat?
Thirteen percent of those surveyed said cheating is acceptable, according to an annual poll conducted for the Internal Revenue Service Oversight Board. That's up 4% from 2008. Four percent of Americans said they cheat on their taxes "as much as possible," up 1% from the year before.
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Do you cheat on your taxes?
Not at allA little here and thereAs much as possible or View resultsAs tax season approaches this year, even more people may resort to cheating.
"I think the temptation will be greater this year, given the overall economic environment," said Bob Kerr, senior director of government relations at the National Association of Enrolled Agents.
But it's still impressive that more than 80% of those surveyed said they don't think it's ever acceptable to cheat, said Kerr.
How people cheat: As the government offers more refundable credits to taxpayers, such as the Making Work Pay Tax Credit, people may be tempted to try to claim more money than they deserve.
"We're getting more refundable credits," said Mark Luscombe, a tax analyst at CCH. "Historically, when you're able to get a check from the government in your hands right away, this has brought more cheaters out of the woodwork."
Besides common cheating tactics such as inflating the value of charitable donations and claiming personal expenses as business expenses if you're self-employed, Luscombe said a number of "cheaters" are simply those people who can't decipher the complicated tax code.
"People can't figure it out so they just put down a number that seems pretty good to them," he said. "The laws get more and more complicated each year and people just have less time to figure out the right way to do it so they might try to cut some corners."
Scared of getting audited: When asked if the fear of an audit plays a role in whether or not a taxpayer reports his or her taxes "honestly," 77% of Americans said yes, according to the poll.
That shouldn't be a surprise given the higher likelihood that you will be selected for a review. Last year, the number of audits rose to the highest level in a decade, and even more audits are expected this year as the Obama Administration pours money into tax enforcement.
A hotline was created to prevent cheaters from slipping past the IRS. Anyone with information about suspected tax fraud is encouraged to report it to the agency's tip line at 1-800-829-0433.
"There's still only about a 1% chance on average that you will be audited," said Luscombe. "But the audit rate has headed back up in the last couple years so your chances are certainly going up."
How can I boost body mass index without adding fat?
2. Add good fats including nuts and seeds, olive and canola oil, and avocado to snacks, meals and recipes whenever possible.
3. Don't fill up on vegetables at meals as they may prevent you from eating more energy-dense foods. Cooking vegetables in olive oil or healthy oil-based sauces can help increase the calorie density of vegetables servings. Fruits are also filled with nutrients and have more calories so if you get full easily, eat more fruits than vegetables. Dried fruits are even more calorie dense, so try to include them in meals and snacks throughout the day.
4. Make sure to add resistance training to your exercise regimen so you gain muscle in addition to body fat. This may help increase your appetite too.
5. If you find that water fills you up, limit consumption at meals. Try drinking 100 percent juice or 1 percent milk with meals and drink water between meals.
To increase hemoglobin, you need to increase your intake of iron. Iron is best absorbed in animal foods such as red meat, seafood and chicken, so try to eat these foods on a regular basis. If you are a vegetarian, make sure that you eat plant-based iron sources with a vitamin C-rich food such as oranges or orange juice, grapefruits or grapefruit juice, strawberries, kiwi and green pepper to increase the absorption of iron. If you take an iron supplement, do not take it with coffee, tea, or milk, as this may negativately affect absorption. Here are several iron-containing foods you should try to include in your diet on a regular basis: Swiss chard, beans, lentils, iron-fortified cereal, enriched grains (bread, pasta, rice) soybeans, spinach and dried fruit.
At least 36 people were killed in Morocco when a minaret collapsed at a mosque in the central town of Meknes, officials say.
The TV report said that the collapse came after heavy rains which lashed the region for several days.
The minaret is said to have been four centuries old.
Many people are said to be buried under the rubble of the collapsed tower.
A resident, Khaled Rahmouni, told Reuters news agency that about 300 worshippers had gathered inside the mosque for Friday afternoon prayers.
"When the imam was about to start his sermon, the minaret fell down," he said.
Moroccan television added that the interior and religious affairs ministers had visited the site to supervise rescue operations.
The officials visited the injured, who had been taken to hospitals in Meknes and the nearby city of Fez.
Observers say that while neglected buildings in the old quarters of Morocco's cities collapse fairly often, the fall of a minaret is rare.
King Mohammed VI ordered the minaret to be rebuilt.
Meknes is on Unesco's world heritage list.
Microsoft offers web browser choice to IE users
Microsoft agreed to give Windows users a choice of internet browser |
Millions of European Internet Explorer (IE) users will have the option to choose an alternative browser from 1 March, Microsoft has announced.
It follows a legal agreement between Microsoft and Europe's Competition Commission in December 2009.
Microsoft committed to letting Windows PC users across Europe install the web browser of their choice, rather than having Microsoft IE as a default.
Figures suggest that over half the world's internet users have IE.
Testing for the update is already underway in the UK, Belgium and France.
The software update choice will arrive automatically for Windows XP, Windows Vista and Windows 7 customers, according to a blog post by Dave Heiner, Microsoft's vice president and deputy general counsel.
The blog also contains screen grabs of the message as it will appear.
"Users who get the choice screen will be free to choose any browser or stick with the browser they have, as they prefer," wrote Mr Heiner.
Google Chrome, Firefox, Safari and Opera are the alternative browsers that people will be offered.
"Millions of people who have never really thought about which browser to use will now be forced to make a choice," said BBC technology correspondent Rory Cellan-Jones on his blog.
"That presents Microsoft's rivals with a unique marketing opportunity."
Mozilla Foundation chair Mitchell Baker described the news as "an important milestone towards helping people take control of their online lives."
The Spotless Garden
A system in Colorado uses wastewater from tilapia to nourish tomatoes. The tilapia are also food. More Photos »
By MICHAEL TORTORELLO
Published: February 17, 2010
THERE’S a “Beyond Thunderdome” quality to Rob Torcellini’s greenhouse. The 10-by-12-foot structure is undistinguished on the outside: he built it from a $700 kit, alongside his family’s Victorian-style farmhouse in Eastford, Conn., a former farming town 35 miles east of Hartford. What is going on inside, however, is either a glimpse at the future of food growing or a very strange hobby — possibly both.
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There are fish here, for one thing, shivering through the winter, and a jerry-built system of tanks, heaters, pumps, pipes and gravel beds. The greenhouse vents run on a $20 pair of recycled windshield wiper motors, and a thermostat system sends Mr. Torcellini e-mail alerts when the temperature drops below 36 degrees. Some 500 gallons of water fill a pair of food-grade polyethylene drums that he scavenged from a light-industry park.
Mr. Torcellini’s greenhouse wouldn’t look out of place on a wayward space station where pioneers have gone to escape the cannibal gangs back on Earth. But then, in a literal sense, Mr. Torcellini, a 41-year-old I.T. director for an industrial manufacturer, has left earth — that is, dirt — behind.
What feeds his winter crop of lettuce is recirculating water from the 150-gallon fish tank and the waste generated by his 20 jumbo goldfish. Wastewater is what fertilizes the 27 strawberry plants from last summer, too. They occupy little cubbies in a seven-foot-tall PVC pipe. When the temperature begins to climb in the spring, he will plant the rest of the gravel containers with beans, peppers, tomatoes and cucumbers — all the things many other gardeners grow outside.
In here, though, the yields are otherworldly. “We actually kept a tally of how many cherry tomatoes we grew,” Mr. Torcellini said of last summer’s crop. “And from one plant, it was 347.” A trio of cucumber plants threw off 175 cukes.
If that kind of bounty sounds hard to believe, Mr. Torcellini has a YouTube channel to demonstrate it. “There’s alternate ways of growing food,” he said. “I don’t want to push it down people’s throats, but if someone’s interested, I’d like to show them you can do this with cheap parts and a little bit of Yankee ingenuity.”
It’s all part of a home experiment he is conducting in a form of year-round, sustainable agriculture called aquaponics — a neologism that combines hydroponics (or water-based planting) and aquaculture (fish cultivation) — which has recently attracted a zealous following of kitchen gardeners, futurists, tinkerers and practical environmentalists.
And Australians — a lot of Australians.
In Australia, where gardeners have grappled with droughts for a decade, aquaponics is particularly appealing because it requires 80 to 90 percent less water than traditional growing methods. (The movement’s antipodean think tank is a Web site called Backyard Aquaponics, where readers can learn how, say, to turn a swimming pool into a fish pond.)
In the United States, aquaponics is in its fingerling stage, yet it seems to be increasing in popularity. Rebecca Nelson, 45, half of the company Nelson &Pade, publishes the Aquaponics Journal and sells aquaponics systems in Montello, Wis. While she refused to disclose exact sales figures, Ms. Nelson said that subscriptions have doubled every year for the last five years, and now number in the thousands. Having worked in the industry since 1997, leading workshops and consulting with academics, she estimates that there may be 800 to 1,200 aquaponics set-ups in American homes and yards and perhaps another 1,000 bubbling away in school science classrooms.
One of Ms. Nelson’s industry colleagues, Sylvia Bernstein, who helped develop a mass-market hydroponic product called the AeroGarden, recently turned her attention to aquaponics. She has started her own YouTube channel and a blog (aquaponicgardening.wordpress.com) and is teaching aquaponics at the Denver Botanic Gardens. She said she has done market research that suggests the technology may appeal to a half-dozen consumer types, including those seeking fresh winter herbs; gadget-happy gardeners; and high-income parents and their science-fair kids. But primarily, she envisions aquaponics as catnip for “the LOHAS market,” she said. “That means Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability — the green crowd.”
It’s worth mentioning that most of those categories would appear to describe the 47-year-old Ms. Bernstein. She built her first aquaponics system with her 15-year-old son on a concrete pad outside her remodeled 1970s-era Boulder, Colo., home. And she has since set up quarters in a 240-square-foot greenhouse. While she boasted about picking fresh basil the other day for a risotto, she has lately been preoccupied with exotic fish. Having tired of tilapia and trout, Ms. Bernstein is now introducing pacu, a thin, silvery import from South America that she called “a vegetarian piranha.”
Calls in Egypt for ElBaradei to Seek Presidency
CAIRO — Hundreds of people across Egypt’s political spectrum greeted the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mohamed ElBaradei on his arrival at the airport here on Friday and called on him to run for president, a daring political gesture in a country where unauthorized political demonstrations are illegal.
Hundreds of supporters of Mohamed ElBaradei gathered at the airport in Cairo on Friday to await his return to Egypt.
Dr. ElBaradei’s plane landed several hours late, at 6 p.m., in his first return to Egypt since leaving his post at the end of last year as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Though opposition politics in Egypt are constrained by laws that restrict freedom of speech and the right to assemble, a grass-roots effort has emerged to try to draft Dr. ElBaradei to run in the presidential election in 2011.
The broad nature of Dr. ElBaradei’s appeal — as an outsider of international renown with no ties to a political system widely seen as ineffective and corrupt — was on display at the airport. Those who gathered — men and women — included people from various regions who said they had never been involved in politics, prominent actors and writers, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and leading members of groups calling for democratic change.
“We are supporting him and he is a symbol of change,” said Muhammad Abdel Qudous, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, the banned but tolerated Islamic movement. “The question is, can ElBaradei, who lived most of his life working in Europe, can he lead a new Egyptian revolution for change?”
The government has long worked hard to prevent the evolution of rivals, and it would be difficult for most candidates to develop enough of a reputation nationally to be credible contenders. But Dr. ElBaradei, 67, is already well known because of his high-profile work, and analysts say his stature would also make him harder to attack. He shared a Nobel Peace Prize with the atomic agency in 2005.
There was a time when even discussing who would replace Hosni Mubarak, now in his 29th year as president, was not tolerated. But Mr. Mubarak is 81, and while his health has remained stable, his term of office expires in 2011. That has led to widespread speculation — and anxiety — across Egypt over who might replace him should he decide not to run again.
Many political scientists, commentators and activists believe the president has tried to position his son, Gamal Mubarak, to take over. But that prospect has already spawned a group called The Egyptian Campaign Against Succession and has encouraged a growing movement to try to enlist Dr. ElBaradei. An ElBaradei for President group on Facebook has more than 60,000 members.
“We have been living under the impression there are no alternatives to the man or his son, or the Muslim Brotherhood,” said Sherif Massoud, 42, a banker from Cairo. “But for the first time now, there is another viable option.”
The last presidential election, in 2005, allowed multiple candidates, but they could campaign only for several weeks, and many Egyptians felt the political system was stacked in favor of the governing party.
The hope for change, and for options other than the Mubarak family, were repeated over and over again on Friday as the crowd waited patiently for Dr. ElBaradei. When he tried to leave the terminal on Friday, the crowd pressed in so close to the doors that he turned around. He later came out of another terminal, got in a car and drove through the cheering crowd, which had alternately been singing the Egyptian national anthem and chanting anti-Mubarak slogans.
It was not at all clear that Dr. ElBaradei would agree to run, and if he did, whether he would be able to. Amendments to the Egyptian Constitution limit who has the right to run, and at the moment, at least, Dr. ElBaradei does not appear to meet the criteria. In addition, Dr. ElBaradei has said he will consider running only if the election is free, fair, under the supervision of the judiciary and in the presences of international observers — criteria the leadership here has rejected in the past.
Still, Dr. ElBaradei’s emergence as a possible candidate served as a rallying point for those frustrated by years of no real political alternatives, many people at the airport rally said.
“We want to send a message, whether to the Egyptian people or the government, or to Baradei himself, that we need change,” said Mona Omar, who said this was the first time she had become involved in politics. “It is our right to choose the person who will represent us.”
Spain to recognise civil war poet Miguel Hernandez
By Sarah Rainsford BBC News, Madrid |
Miguel Hernandez is ranked among Spain's finest poets |
The Spanish government says it will formally recognise one of the country's best-known poets as a victim of the dictatorship of Gen Francisco Franco.
It will present the family of the poet, Miguel Hernandez, with an official letter rehabilitating his memory.
Hernandez was imprisoned as a traitor 70 years ago for supporting the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War, and died in prison at the age of 31.
The family applied for his rehabilitation under a 2007 law.
The decision to rehabilitate him comes as Spain marks the centenary of the poet's birth with a series of events.
"We have always lived with this sadness, and finally we have cleansed his memory," the poet's daughter-in-law, Lucia Izquierdo, told the BBC.
"We wanted his image restored as a poet of the people, and a great man."
'Onion Lullaby'
The family applied for the rehabilitation under Spain's Historical Memory Law, passed in 2007 to recognise the victims on both sides of the Civil War, and during Franco's rule.
Hernandez never took up arms, but he staunchly supported Republican forces |
According to Spain's justice ministry, 237 people had been recognised under the law out of 831 applications received up until October 2009, with 17 cases refused.
Ranked alongside Federico Garcia Lorca and others as one of Spain's finest poets, Miguel Hernandez was from a poor, peasant family.
A staunch Republican, many of his poems depict the horror of the Civil War.
He was arrested and imprisoned in 1940, when his family say he refused on principle to sign a confession and apology in return for permission to go into exile.
"He was never a traitor, he was always on the side of justice," Ms Izquierdo said. "It is frightening to think what they did to him."
"He never took up arms, but they were against him because he defended Spain with his pen," she added.
"His legacy is some of the most beautiful poetry we have. His unjust death deprived us of more."
Gen Franco commuted the death penalty against the poet to a 30-year sentence, but Hernandez died soon after when he contracted tuberculosis, which went untreated in harsh prison conditions.
Many of the poet's most moving works were written in prison, including the famous "Onion Lullaby".
He addressed that poem to his wife when he learned she and their child were surviving on nothing but onions.
The poet's family did not request compensation from the state for his treatment, as it could under the 2007 law - only his rehabilitation.
They are now preparing an appeal to the Supreme Court to get the original death sentence against him annulled and clear the last black mark against his name.
Hope for Obama plan in fortress Kabul
By Mark Dummett BBC News, Kabul |
It is easy to tell that this war is not going well for the Afghan government and its foreign allies.
The defences in Kabul betray the deteriorating security situation |
More than ever, Kabul city centre resembles a fortress. In the two years since I was last here more roads have been closed off, and the blast barriers around embassies and government buildings have grown thicker and higher.
Nato troops still patrol the city in full combat gear, and, judging by the number of armed guards standing on the streets, this is a boom time for private security firms.
But the response to the worsening security situation in the city is lopsided. This is now a city of four million people, but the police force numbers only 4,000.
Elsewhere in Afghanistan, the security forces are even more stretched.
'Enable the Afghans '
US President Barack Obama's announcement that they will receive more resources and more training will therefore be welcome news for many, not least the Afghan Defence Minister Gen Abdul Rahim Wardak.
Afghans want to see changes in their daily lives |
"Since the beginning in 2002 I have been telling everyone that the most cost-effective way for our friends and allies, and politically the less complex way, and the way to save the lives of our friends and allies, is to enable the Afghans themselves," he told me before President Obama spoke.
"That is the only sustainable way to secure Afghanistan. It will take some time to train and equip a bigger force, but I that think once it is completed the gradual draw down of international forces can start," he said.
The head of the international forces in the country, Gen David McKeirnon, is also keen to emphasis the vital role that the Afghan security forces increasingly are able to play.
'Bottom-up approach'
The day before President Obama's announcement, he was at the graduation ceremony for the first units of the Afghan Public Protection Force, which will operate at the community level.
The 240 men come from Wardak province, just to the south of Kabul, which was badly hit by the Taleban insurgency last year.
After three weeks of training by US special forces, these men will soon be sent back to their villages, to be a first line of defence. The plan is to replicate this force across the country.
"This is an example of a bottom-up approach, where we can have communities come together and help provide security and a unity of voice," Gen David McKeirnon said.
But like much of Washington's new strategy, Afghans have heard many things like this before.
It is only when they see changes on the ground, and in their impoverished and war-scarred communities, that they will begin to believe that there is indeed a new strategy, and one that works.
Afghan president stands up to critics
President Karzai told the BBC he had to do a 'million times better'
The BBC's Lyse Doucet questions Afghan President Hamid Karzai on hopes for the future and the mistakes of the past.
As Senator Barack Obama prepares to take power in the White House, it is clear Afghanistan will be at the top of his foreign policy priorities, and it will be a policy of change. But does that mean change all the way to the top?
During his election campaign, Mr Obama said he told Afghan President Hamid Karzai, on a July trip to Kabul, "you are going to have to do better by your people in order for us to gain the popular support that's necessary".
"I have to do a million times better by the Afghan people," President Karzai admitted. But in a BBC interview on a visit to London, he stressed this was an issue for the Afghan people to decide, not outsiders.
That is what Afghans will do next year if presidential elections go ahead as scheduled. A vote is required by the constitution but it is under constant discussion in the midst of deteriorating security.
It is no secret that Washington strongly backed President Karzai in the last elections in 2004.
It is too early to say who the next US administration will throw its support behind this time, partly because there is no clear and convincing alternative to the current president. But it is an issue - for the international community and for Afghans.
And the president is showing signs that he gets the message. A long-promised cabinet shuffle finally went ahead last month, after months of pressure on him from foreign envoys and Afghans.
Contracts and companies
I asked him about the loud and growing demands for him to tackle what many now describe as "rampant corruption".
Taleban fighters in Wardak province, close to Kabul |
"It's part of my responsibility and I am addressing it very, very forcefully," Mr Karzai told me.
But he also pointed out the international community "had to do much better" in tackling its own corruption. He mentioned contracts and security companies.
Speaking in London, the Afghan leader cautioned there should not be a "blame game" for what he said had been a "difficult journey".
Seven years on from the fall of the Taleban, there are "issues the US administration will have with us and issues we will have with them".
Anyone involved in Afghanistan would agree this journey has been difficult and it took many wrong turns. Many, including Afghans across the country, are now saying the journey is failing.
Gates of Kabul
Violence is the worst it has been since the Taleban was toppled. Even the capital, Kabul, no longer feels safe.
Gen Petraeus favours a more robust cross-border policy |
In the last few weeks, hardly a day has gone by without a report of a kidnapping or killing in broad daylight. And Taleban fighters have advanced to provinces at the very gates of the capital.
A leaked draft of the latest US National Intelligence Estimate, the considered view of 16 intelligence agencies, described Afghanistan as being on a "downward spiral".
The US president-elect's recent description of the current situation was "precarious... and an urgent crisis".
"Precarious yes," said the Afghan leader. "But not an urgent crisis."
It is a sanguine assessment that some will see as the president's typically resolute optimism, but for others will cause dismay.
With his customary loyalty to friends and fellow travellers, President Karzai praised George W Bush as a "very strong backer of Afghanistan and a personal friend," even though he went on to list a catalogue of mistakes made by the international community where the US has played the leading role when it comes to troops and money, if not direction.
As critical as the international community is of Afghan shortcomings, there is also a recognition of its own blunders.
The outgoing EU envoy, Francesc Vendrell, has bluntly accused the West of lacking a coherent policy. "It was not destined to fail, but it's certainly not succeeding."
President Karzai pointed to a number of failures, including:
- a reluctance to go after the Taleban and al-Qaeda in their sanctuaries and training grounds in neighbouring Pakistan
- the failure to build "Afghan capacity" - the catchphrase for Afghan skills
- the establishment of parallel institutions which impede the Afghan government's own development.
Mediating role
The first point has been the president's constant refrain. He urged his allies to "seize the opportunity". He described his often strained relationship with neighbouring Pakistan as now being "much better than ever".
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On his visit this week to New York to attend a UN Interfaith Dialogue, President Karzai held talks with Pakistan's new President, Asif Ali Zardari, and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah who has begun to play a mediating role between certain elements of the Taleban and the Afghan government.
President Karzai expressed appreciation for the Saudi king's effort. He described it as an effort "to bring about a better environment between Pakistan and Afghanistan".
After years of private criticism and concern over Pakistan's role by some Western military officers and diplomats based on the Afghan side of the border, it is now widely accepted the only solution is a regional one.
The question is how to tackle this growing insurgency when the Taleban and al-Qaeda now hold sway over large parts of Pakistan's restive tribal agencies along the border with Afghanistan.
New ways
General David Petraeus, the new US commander for the wider region, is known to back a more robust cross-border approach. He is now exploring ways to engage tribal leaders and militias in the same way he did in Iraq even if many, including General Petraeus himself, know these conflicts are, in ways, profoundly different.
Mr Karzai told the BBC that the West needed to sort out the right strategy |
Asked whether a troop "surge" would work in Afghanistan, as it did in Iraq, President Karzai emphasised it was not just a question of troops but the right strategy.
Minds are now being concentrated in many capitals on what is the right strategy in such a high stakes war.
"I wish our partners had listened to us more," the president remarked. He said his "first demand" to America's new president was to stop the growing toll of civilian casualties largely caused by US-led air strikes.
Mr Obama is described as a leader who listens. He will also have to decide whether his Afghan counterpart is not just saying, but doing, enough to turn this situation around.
Pakistan pessimism at Obama revamp
By M Ilyas Khan BBC News, Islamabad |
What will the US do with Taleban militants in tribal areas? |
Pakistan's foreign minister may have welcomed the new Obama regional initiative but the immediate feeling among political commentators was generally one of pessimism.
In Moscow for a conference on Afghanistan, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said: "I think the new Obama administration's approach is a very positive approach. They are looking towards a regional approach to the situation.
"Pakistan is willing to play an active, constructive role in this because we feel our peace and security is linked to Afghanistan's," he told Reuters news agency.
For Pakistan, the key issue in the strategy review will be the so-called "safe havens" for militants in the Afghan border regions and what the US intends to do about them.
Drone attacks
It was what Barack Obama did not say rather than what he did that exercised some analysts.
There was no mention of the increasing US drone missile attacks on militants on Pakistani soil.
Rahimullah Yusufzai |
"The drift of the speech suggests that drone attacks will increase, and their area may be expanded to Balochistan [province] as well," leading journalist Rahimullah Yusufzai told Geo TV.
Analyst Zahid Hussain agreed it appeared that "in the coming days the Americans would be more aggressive in the border region, with US troops possibly pursuing the militants into Pakistani tribal areas".
"This is likely to create more pressure on Pakistan," he told the BBC.
Former army man Lt Gen Talat Masood disagreed with the new regional US policy.
"Lumping Pakistan with Afghanistan means that Afghanistan's problems have been heaped on Pakistan."
Gen Masood said he believed that an increase of foreign troops in Afghanistan would only bring a matching Taleban response.
"So there will be a greater level of militant activity and it will affect both Afghanistan and the Pakistani tribal areas," he told the BBC.
"This will apparently bring more American focus on Pakistan, with concomitant pressure to take actions which are only likely to increase terrorist activities."
Gen Masood did welcome the tripling of aid.
The drone attacks have caused anger among many in Pakistan |
But, as Mr Yusufzai pointed out, it will come with strings attached.
"[Obama] has also said there won't be any blank cheques, which means Pakistan will have to do their bidding to earn that money."
He added: "The reconstruction opportunity zones (ROZ) date back to the Bush era, but nothing was done about it. We'll see if the Americans put it into practice."
Mr Hussain agreed that the cash would only come "when Pakistan is able to contain al-Qaeda".
And while cash for infrastructure was important, he said military aid was just as vital.
"Many military officials complain they are obliged to fight the highly-armed militants with peace-time equipment," Mr Hussain said.
Former Finance Minister Sartaj Aziz summed up a general sense of disappointment, saying the Afghan side of the strategy was "not enough of a change".
"It is mostly a continuation of Bush policy, the only difference being the addition of US civilian officials being brought in to help boost Afghanistan's economic and social sectors."
He added: "If the presidential elections in August go well, there may be some hope for a change, but Obama's new strategy does not identify any new direction as such which could improve the situation."
Dutch cabinet collapses in dispute over Afghanistan
Dutch forces have been in Uruzgan since 2006 |
The Dutch government has collapsed over disagreements within the governing coalition on extending troop deployments in Afghanistan.
After marathon talks, Christian Democratic Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende announced that the Labour Party was quitting the government.
Mr Balkenende has been considering a Nato request for Dutch forces to stay in Afghanistan beyond 2010.
But Labour, the second-largest coalition party, has opposed the move.
Just under 2,000 Dutch service personnel have been serving in the southern Afghan province of Uruzgan since 2006, with 21 killed.
Their deployment has already been extended once.
Jan Peter Balkenende |
The troops should have returned home in 2008, but they stayed on because no other Nato nation offered replacements.
The commitment is now due to end in August 2010.
The Dutch parliament voted in October 2009 that it must definitely stop by then, although the government has yet to endorse that vote.
The finance minister and leader of the Labour Party, Wouter Bos, demanded an immediate ruling from Mr Balkenende.
Nato priority
The collapse of the government was announced after a 16-hour cabinet meeting.
Mr Balkenende had been considering the Nato request |
The prime minister said there was no common ground between the parties.
"Where there is no trust, it is difficult to work together. There is no good path to allow this cabinet to go further," he said.
The BBC's Geraldine Coughlan in The Hague says an early election is now expected to take place later in the year.
The launch in 2001 of Nato's International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) for Afghanistan was the organisation's first and largest ground operation outside Europe.
Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said six months ago when he began his job that his priority was the war in Afghanistan.
As of June 2009, Isaf had more than 61,000 personnel from 42 different countries including the US, Canada, European countries, Australia, Jordan and New Zealand.
The US provides the bulk of foreign forces in Afghanistan, and President Barack Obama has announced an extra 30,000 American troops for Afghanistan.
The Pentagon has said the next 18 months could prove crucial for the international mission in Afghanistan, after more than eight years of efforts to stabilise the country.
Afghanistan remains a deadly place for foreign forces.
Suicide attacks on Afghan civilians and roadside bomb strikes on international troops are common, with the Taliban strongly resurgent in many areas of the country.
Sex hormone progesterone to get head injury trial
By Victoria Gill Science reporter, BBC News, San Diego |
Progesterone protects neurons in the brain after an injury |
Natural progesterone, the sex hormone used in the first contraceptive pills, is to be tested on patients with severe head injuries.
Scientists will begin a phase III clinical trial in March and say the drug could save patients' lives and reduce damage to their brains.
They announced the trial at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
It will involve 1,000 patients in 17 trauma centres across the US.
Dr David Wright, associate professor of emergency medicine at Emory University in Atlanta, will lead the trial.
Complex condition
Previous studies have shown that progesterone supports the normal development of neurons in the brain, and that the hormone has a protective effect on damaged brain tissue.
Dr Wright told BBC News: "Traumatic brain injury is a complex condition - there's swelling, and neuronal death and damage occurring all at the same time.
"The beauty of progesterone is that it seems to work on all of those things."
In earlier tests, the Emory University researchers found that progesterone reduced the risk of death in patients with brain injuries.
Dr Wright hopes that, following this trial, progesterone will become the first drug treatment in 30 years to be approved specifically for severe traumatic brain injury.
Yams
The active ingredient, natural progesterone, is very similar to that used in the first contraceptive pills. This has now been superseded by a synthetic progesterone known as progestin. But, for brain injury, only the natural hormone appears to have the desired protective effect.
During the trial, patients with blunt trauma head injuries will be given an infusion of natural progesterone that will last for four days. The hormone is extracted from yams - also known as sweet potatoes.
"The dose is probably about three times what would be found in [the blood] of a female in the third trimester of pregnancy," Dr Wright explained.
The US Federal Drug Administration (FDA) has made a special allowance for the team to administer the drug without patients' consent - so it can be given as soon as possible and have the maximum protective effect.